LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks Picks, Odds Lines & Predictions
In their first game since Halloween, LSU Tigers (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) will travel to Fayetteville on Saturday to face Arkansas Razorbacks (3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS) who have excelled against the spread this season, covering in 6 of their 7 games. SEC rivals last met a year ago with the Tigers notching a 56-20 win in a game where they were favored by 39.5 points. Both teams had Covid issues, and while a group of LSU players and Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman are expected to return, Arkansas has reported that a couple of staff members and a player have tested positive this week. Still, they should be able to field a required minimum number of players for the Saturday game.
LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks Betting Line Movement
With both teams pretty inconsistent this season and various news coming from both camps, the line has been all over the place throughout the week. Arkansas opened as -2.5 favorites at some places, but plenty of action on LSU and Covid-related news turned the things completely around, and the Razorbacks are now +2.5 underdogs. The total hovered around 65 for the better part of the week, before dropping to 63.5 at most bookies.
Notes On The LSU Tigers
LSU may have won the National Title last year, but this season’s performances are nowhere near that level. In their last game, they were destroyed by Auburn on the road 48-11 keeping their win tally at just 2 in 5 games. Of course, the biggest difference from last season is no Joe Burrow under the center and the Tigers’ offense hasn’t been the same this whole campaign, although they ranked 13th in passing. New starting QB Myles Brennan was injured against Missouri in week 3 and hasn’t played since and according to the latest news may not return this season. The starter in his absence is TJ Finley, although freshman Max Johnson also got some minutes. Johnson was decent against Auburn after entering the game throwing for 172 yards and a touchdown, but Finley will most likely start again.
The bigger issues for head coach Ed Orgeron have been the rushing offense and the defense. The Tigers have only 119.6 yards on the ground so far and rank 105th in the country in this department. It’s possible that no Clyde Edwards-Helaire at RB position has hurt them even more than the departure of Burrow. We’ll see if the extra time for preparation has helped shore up their defense a little since it has been terrible for the better part of the season ranking 113th in total yards allowed and 123rd against the pass.
Notes On The Arkansas Razorbacks
Last week the Hogs lost to Florida, with the offense putting up an encouraging performance while the defense was completely outmatched by the Gators’ attack. The good news is that this week they won’t be going against one of the best QBs in the nation in Kyle Trask, but will face LSU’s backup quarterback. Still, as the Razorbacks’ defense ranks 77th against passing and allows 245.4 yards through the air, a significant improvement will be needed to keep TJ Finley at bay. The rushing defense is also far from impressive but the Tigers’ ground game is nowhere near the level of their passing.
Still, the offense, led by senior QB Feleipe Franks will be the key for winning this game as far as the Razorbacks are concerned. Franks has been very efficient this season throwing for 1678 yards with a tidy 16-3 touchdown to interception ratio. His preferred targets, WRs Mike Woods and Treylon Burks are more than capable of creating a lot of problems for LSU’s defense, and they should receive plenty of targets on Saturday. The running game leaves a lot to be desired and ranks 81st in the nation, but RB Trelon Smith had the best game of the season against Florida, and we expect some improvement in this department.
NCAAF Betting Pick: LSU Tigers -2.5
The Tigers will make the most of the extra time to prepare for this game and will relish a chance to get back at the .500 mark. LSU has covered the spread only 3 times in the last 10 games against Arkansas, but those spreads were much higher than this one. They won by 36 last year and this team is definitely not 30 points worse.
