NFL Playoffs Betting Lines, Odds & Picks: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
On Sunday, the defending champion, Kansas City (15-2 SU, 6-10-1 ATS) will host Buffalo (15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS) in the AFC Championship NFL playoff betting game. The Chiefs are trying to make the second consecutive trip to the Super Bowl. The Bills haven’t been this far in the playoffs since 1993. This will be the 50th meeting between the two, with Buffalo leading the series 26-22-1. The AFC rivals already met this season. In Week 6, KC scored a big road victory, 56-17. The main talking point before the match is the status of Patrick Mahomes. The superstar quarterback left the previous game early due to a concussion.
NFL Playoffs Betting Line Movement
The opening line favored the Chiefs by -1. This was right after the Cleveland game and Mahomes’ injury. Following some positive news from the Kansas City camp, the line moved to -3. The total moved around a lot. During the NFL playoff betting week, you could find it anywhere between 51 and 55.5. Eventually, it settled at 53.5 or 54, depending on a sportsbook.
Notes On The Buffalo Bills
Buffalo’s offense has been red-hot at the end of the season, but they’ve scored only 17 points in the divisional round. And, 7 of these came courtesy of their NFL playoff betting defense. They’ll have to do much better on Sunday. Against the Ravens, their attack was very pass-heavy. With Zack Moss out, we can expect more of the same vs the Chiefs. The good news for the Bill is the likely absence of KC’s starting corner Bashaud Breeland. This should provide more space for the lethal Allen-Diggs connection. Unlike the Ravens game, the defense will have to cope with both pass and run threats. Especially if Mahomes starts. Additionally, the Bills struggled to stop the Chiefs’ run in the previous matchup. In Week 6, they’ve allowed Clyde Edwards-Helaire to put up 161 yards.
Last week, Josh Allen failed to throw for multiple touchdowns for the first time after six games. Still, the Chiefs’ defense, although good, is not elite. We can see him bouncing back and having a good game. Despite the low scoring affair vs Baltimore, Stefon Diggs managed to get his. He had eight catches for 106 yards and a touchdown. He could easily continue his hot streak on Sunday.
Notes On The Kansas City Chiefs
Of course, everything in Kansas City revolves around Patrick Mahomes. The latest reports are encouraging. He’s still in the concussion protocol and his status is limited. However, Mahomes took part in both Wednesday’s and Thursday’s practices, taking the majority of the reps. The general feeling around the league is that he’ll start. Otherwise, the Chiefs will rely on Chad Henne. The career backup had himself a rollercoaster of a game on Sunday. He threw an interception that almost cost Kansas City a game, but eventually settled and led the team to victory. Still, with him under center, The Chiefs’ chances drop significantly. No matter who starts at QB, they will certainly be encouraged by the likely return of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Sammy Watkins.
Given his uncertain status and price tag, Mahomes is perhaps not the best QB DFS option this week. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce continued to dominate the targets for the Chiefs last week. We don’t see that changing and they both should be no-brainers on Sunday.
NFL Playoffs Betting Predictions and Picks: Buffalo Bills +3
Of course, this pick depends on Mahomes’s status. Still, even if he plays, we expect a tight game. The Chiefs covered only six times this season while the Bills beat the NFL playoff betting spread on 12 occasions.