Betting The 2020 NBA Finals: Heat vs. Lakers
Some things go as planned in the world of sports betting. Some things do not. Before the 2019/2020 NBA season started, LeBron James and his Los Angeles Lakers were favored to win the Championship. Much farther down the list was the Miami Heat at much longer odds.
Going back to that original NBA futures list, the Lakers’ odds to win were set at +650. Using the same list, Miami was a prohibitive +35000 longshot. I guess that is why they play the games.
What Are The Best Bets For Betting The 2020 NBA Finals: Heat vs. Lakers?
Fast forward to this Wednesday night. Game 1 of this season’s best-of-seven NBA Finals will be played in the Orlando bubble. Game time on ABC is set for 9 p.m. (ET).
Los Angeles has been designated as the home team for the first two games. The Lakers have also been designated as five-point favorites for the series opener by Intertops online sportsbook. The total line for Game 1 is set at 217 ½ points.
A quick review of each team’s betting record in the postseason favors Miami. The Heat played 15 previous playoff games. They went 12-3 both straight-up and against the spread. The last six games were against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami went 4-2 (SU and ATS) to capture the conference title.
The total slightly favored the OVER 8-7 in those 15 games. It went OVER in five of the six games against the Celtics.
The Lakers started the postseason with a 4-1 series win over Portland. They also needed five games to get past Houston. Following suit, LA eliminated the Denver Nuggets in five games to win the Western Conference title. Matching Miami’s 12-3 SU record in 15 games, the Lakers went 9-4-1 ATS.
The total stayed UNDER in eight of those 15 games. However, it did go OVER in four of five games against Denver. Taking those betting trends into consideration, taking the Heat and the OVER in Game 1 would be the way to go.
As far as betting Sportsbook opening series price, LA is set as a -335 favorite. You can get a +280 price on Miami.
The Miami Heat offer the best value in this bet as well. If they win the opener on Wednesday, that series price will come down. If they lose Game 1, it is doubtful they can win four of the next six.
If you like the Lakers, this could be a wait and see the situation. You should actually hope they lose Game 1 to get a lower series price ahead of the next game. If the Los Angeles Lakers wins the series opener, the new series price will go up dramatically.
There are prop bet odds posted for series MVP. James is the obvious favorite at -145. There is some value in the Lakers’ Anthony Davis as a +275 second-favorite. He has the best chance to upstage King James . If Miami does find a way to pull off a huge upset, the MVP value lies in Jimmie Butler at +800.
